《互联网vs区块链革命》系列之一:早期的成功产品

SHU区块链  2019-04-15  区块链/区块链Blockchain栏目  

  

  互联网革命vs区块链革命系列

  

  前言

  马克吐温曾经说过:“历史不会重演,但它确实会押韵”。1994年,《连线》杂志的主编凯文·凯利著就了《失控:机器、社会与经济的新生物学》一书,这是关于社会进化、特别是互联网发展的“先知预言”,后来成为《黑客帝国》主演们的必读物。25年后,八维资本试图捕捉互联网和区块链革命之间的相似之处,以帮助人们更好地了解技术生命周期和区块链行业的未来。我们将在接下来的几周内发布一系列文章,欢迎订阅我们的微信公众号。

  文章系列,敬请期待:

  

  互联网与区块链革命之:

  part1:早期的成功产品

  part2:颠覆性公司的起源

  part3:早期的挑战

  part4:新概念,估值和时机

  part5:我们是在1994年吗? 下一步该怎么办?

  

  

  互联网与区块链革命:早期的成功产品(part1)

  

  

  作者:Remi Gai @ 八维资本

  编译:八维研究院

  八维研究院原创,转载请注明出处

  本文是整个系列的第一部分:

  在互联网和区块链革命的早期,获得成功的产品是那些将技术特性抽象化,并为早期采用者提供了便利的产品。 本文将纵览互联网的起源和发展,并讨论一些在早期技术周期中迅速流行起来的产品。

  

  时代杂志封面:信息高速公路 (1993),即将来到您的电视屏幕

  有趣的是,在互联网发展初期,包括微软和康卡斯特在内的大公司都错误地认为未来的重心是在电视和信息高速公路上 ,这是一个交互式智能电视的概念。你可以在电视上购买东西,通过视频聊天和他人互动,租借影碟等等,其实就是把我们今天在电脑上做的所有事情放到电视上。人们之所以对大趋势做出了误判,是因为当时计算机的使用率与电视相比还非常小,电视已经存在超过60年,存在于每个人的家中。 此外,网络的最初版本并不是给一般的普通人使用的,至少需要了解Unix系统和命令行才能使用, AOL (当时的一家互联网公司)认为让人们构建、发现或使用网站是一种“乌托邦式的幻想” 。 实际上,互联网是在冷战时期是可以抵御核攻击的通信系统 (ARPANET),首先在军队中引入,后来由DARPA引入,作为学术研究中心的研究讨论和同行评审平台。 人们大都没有意识到:其实信息高速公路已经存在,而它将在计算机上发生,互联网早期第一批成功的产品为普罗大众提供了一种便捷又便宜的方式去接触新技术。

  

  Mosaic,第一个互联网浏览器,1993年

  在90年代初期,在 国家超级计算应用中心(NCSA), 实习生马克·安德森 ( Marc Andreessen )看到了互联网对于公众的潜力,他希望创建一个更简单,更人性化的浏览器,允许用户可以像浏览个人计算机一样轻松地浏览网页,这就是Mosaic 浏览器的由来。 从1993年到1994年,网站的数量从数百个增长到数万个,而 Mosaic 迅速成为网络上最大的浏览器,拥有300万用户。 在某种程度上, Mosaic 浏览器和网络的关系有点像鸡与蛋的关系,因为它真正让大量的普通人访问互联网。 马克·安德森 后来创建了 Netscape(1994) ,一个市场化的互联网浏览器,一家盈利的私人公司。 Netscape在18个月内就获取了3800万用户,并在创纪录的时间内进行了首次公开募股 ,成为历史上成长最快的公司,也是第一家上市的dot-com公司。 硅谷和华尔街立即被Netscape的成功所吸引 , 触发了“互联网大爆炸 ”,之后一连串的科技创业公司尝试模仿Netscape的成功道路前进。

  

  2013年的Coinbase测试版

  在区块链世界中, 比特币(2008)是该技术的第一个应用,第一波用户也更专注于技术的娴熟度。 在加密货币的早期阶段,公众没有办法简单便捷的访问和交换 比特币 。 2011年诞生的 Coinbase ,解决了三个主要的难点 :1、存储;2、发送/接收;3、数币和法币的兑换。 通过让一般人群更容易获得加密货币, Coinbase迅速成为加密投资者的主流入口 ,到2017年底拥有了超过1300万用户,成为第一个加密货币独角兽。 Coinbase的成功 与Mosaic / Netscape类似, 它通过用户友好的产品帮助主流世界的大多数更便捷的应用新技术 ,从而剥离了加密货币的技术复杂性。

  

  1996年第一版雅虎

  与Mosaic相同 , 雅虎(1995) 是另一个迅速爆红的成功案例,它通过让第一批互联网用户便利的获取有效信息迅速变得流行。 当新网站每天都在出现时,两位斯坦福的博士——Jerry Yang 和 David FILo开始收集,交易和发布那些他们最喜欢的网站链接。尽管他俩只是把这件事当作业余爱好,他们的公共搜索引擎(Yahoo)为第一批互联网用户提供了巨大的价值,并在坊间口耳相传。最终,Netscape,当时最受欢迎的浏览器,将雅虎搜索引擎添加到其浏览器中。 在区块链行业中,尽管用于不同区块链交易的通用搜索引擎对日常用户来说可能并不那么有用,但是对于早期用户来说,一个可以展现、列出并跟踪所有现有加密货币的dash board被证明是非常实用的。 因此 ,在加密世界中,CoinMarkETCap最类似于早期的雅虎 ,它让用户可以很轻松地找到最流行的链接/加密货币。CoinMarketCap在2013年推出时,只有七个加密货币,市场里只有几个交易所,而它现在追踪了超过1600个加密货币和200个交易所,迅速成为加密交易者最受欢迎的首选网站(根据Alexa,从18年开始,CoinMarketCap网站的访问量在所有页面中能排到第174名,有60万独立访客)。

  总之,缺乏落地应用和较高的技术门槛掩盖了互联网的潜能,导致许多大公司低估了它的潜力,转而专注于当时正流行的电视市场。回顾互联网发展的历史,我们推断,在区块链革命的早期阶段,那些能够大获成功的产品将是第一批将大量技术组件抽象化,提供用户友好的界面,或为第一波用户真正带来便利的产品。

  后记

  马克吐温曾经说过“历史不会重演,但它确实会押韵”。 我们试图在互联网和区块链革命之间勾勒出一些相似之处,以帮助公众更好地了解技术的生命周期。请留下您的想法和评论,希望本系列文章将为行业提供一些有价值的观点。

  Sources:

  “How the Internet Happened”, written by Brian McCullough

  https://cryptobriefing.com/coinmarketcap-5-years-new-app-brand/

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coinbase

  本文来自公众号:八维区块链

  英文版:Internet vs Blockchain Revolution Series

  Introduction

  

  Mark Twain once said, “HiSTOry doesn’t repeat itsELF, but it does rhyme”. At 8 Decimal Capital, we are attempting to find similarities between the Internet and Blockchain revolutions, to help the community better understand technological life cycles and the future of the Blockchain industry. The Internet Revolution facts are based on the book “How the Internet Happened”, written by Brian McCullough. We will be releasing a series of articles over the next couple of weeks. Feel free to subscribe to our medium channel to stay up to date with our new posts, in which we will regularly share our findings and insights.

  Article Series:

  Internet vs Blockchain Revolution: 

  Early Successful Products (Part 1)

  Origins of Disruptive Companies (Part 2)

  Challenges in the Early Days (Part 3)

  New Concepts, Valuations, and Timing (Part 4)

  Are We in 1994 What to expect Next (Part 5)

  Early Successful Products (Part 1)

  Author:Remi Gai @ 8 Decimal Capital

  Edition:8 Decimal Research

  The early successful products during the Internet and Blockchain Revolution were the ones that abstracted the technicalities of the technology and provided conVENience to the early adopters. This article will go over the origin of Internet and discuss about some of the products that quickly became popular during the early technological cycle.

  

  Time Magazine Cover: The Information SuperHighway (1993), Coming Soon to Your TV Screen

  Interestingly in the early days of the Internet, the large firms, including Microsoft and Comcast, had a wrong focus and believed that the future was on TV and the Information SuperHighway, the idea of an interactive Smart TV, in which you could purchase things from home, interact with each other through video chats, rent movies etc… all the things that we can do today on our computer instead. This misdirection happened because at the time, computers had a very small adoption rate compared to TVs, which existed for more than 60 years and was present in everyone’s home. Additionally, the first version of the web wasn’t meant to be used by the general population but required an understanding of Unix systems and command lines, in which AOL thought that building websites and hoping people will find them was a “leap of faith”. Indeed, the Internet was introduced in the military during the Cold War-era as a communication system that can withstand nuclear attacks (ARPANET), and later, introduced by DARPA, served as a research discussion and peer reviews platform in academic research centers. What people generally didn't realize, is that the Information Superhighway was already there, but it was going to happen on the computer instead and the first successful products were the ones that provided an easy and convenient way for the general population to access the new technology.

  

  Mosaic, the first Internet browser, in 1993

  In the early 1990s, a part-time student at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA), Marc Andreessen, saw the potential of bringing the Internet to the general public and wanted to create a simpler, more user-friendly browser that allows regular users to navigate the web as comfortably as navigating their personal computer, the Mosaic browser. From 1993 to 1994, the number of websites started to grow from hundreds to tens of thousands and Mosaic quickly became the biggest thing on the web with 3 million users. In a way, one could argue that the Mosaic browser helped on the adoption of the web in a chicken-and-egg type of rELAtionship, as it truly opened up the access of the Internet technology to the general population. Marc Andreessen, later on, created Netscape (1994), a competing Internet browser, but as a for-profit private company. Netscape reached 38 million users in eighteen mONThs and IPO'd in record time, becoming the fastest growing company in history, and the first dot-com company. Silicon Valley and Wall Street were immediately captivated by the rapid success of Netscape, triggering the “Internet Bigbang” in which a cascade of tech startups will try to follow a similar path.


  Beta version of Coinbase in 2013

  In the blockchain world, Bitcoin (2008) was the first application of the technology and the first wave of users was also more on the technical savvy side. Back in the early years of cryptocurrency, there wasn’t a simple way for the general population to access and exchange Bitcoin. Then came Coinbase in 2011, which solved three major PAIn points: storage, send/receive, and fiat-exchange of cryptocurrencies. By making cryptocurrency more accessible to the general population, Coinbase quickly became the mainstream on-ramp for crypto investors, with over 13 million users by the end of 2017, becoming the first cryptocurrency “Unicorn”. The success of Coinbase is analogous to Mosaic/Netscape in the way it helped making a new technology more accessible to the mainstream population through a user-friendly product, stripping away the technical complexities of owning cryptocurrencies.

  First version of Yahoo in 1996

  Along the same line as Mosaic, Yahoo (1995) is another example of a successful company that quickly became popular because of the convenience it brought to the first Internet users by providing important information. When new websites began to appear daily, two Ph.D. students at Stanford, Jerry Yang and David Filo, started collecting, trading and posting their favorite website links on their school’s website as a hobby. Little did they know, their public directory provided tremendous value to the first Internet users and quickly became popular from word-of-mouth, that eventually Netscape, already the most popular browser back then, added Yahoo page to its browser. In the blockchain industry, although a general search engine for different blockchain transactions might not be as useful for the day to day users, a dashboard listing and tracking all the existing cryptocurrencies proved to be very convenient for early adopters. Therefore in the crypto world, CoinMarketCap is most analogous to the early Yahoo, which allowed users to easily find the most popular links/cryptocurrencies. Launched in 2013 with only seven coins and a couple of exchanges and markets, it now tracks over 1600 cryptocurrencies and 200 exchanges, quickly becoming the most popular go-to site for crypto traders (according to Alexa, CoinMarketCap is the 174th most visited site since the start of 2018 with 60M unique visitors).

  In conclusion, the lack of initial adoption and technical barriers masked the potential of the Internet, in which many large companies had underestimated its potential and focused on the existing TV market instead. The early successful products during the Internet and Blockchain revolutions are the first movers who abstracted a lot of the technical components, providing a user-friendly access to the new technology, or brought convenience to the first wave of users.

  -----

  Mark Twain once said “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme”. We are attempting to draw some similarities between the Internet and Blockchain Revolutions, to help entrepreneurs and investors better understand technological life cycles. Please leave your thoughts and comments below, and hope this article series will have provided some valuable perspectives about the Blockchain industry.

  Sources:

  “How the Internet Happened”, written by Brian McCullough

  https://cryptobriefing.com/coinmarketcap-5-years-new-app-brand/

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coinbase

  

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作者:八维研究院
来源:SHU区块链

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